In Georgia, they might attempt to prolong the situation until Trump’s presidency: Political analysts’ opinions
The victory of the ruling “Georgian Dream” party in the October 26 parliamentary elections has sparked large-scale protests and led to an opposition boycott. Over 250 people have been arrested during this period. Even schoolchildren have joined the demonstrations.
Against the backdrop of the unfolding political developments in Georgia, political analyst Gurgen Simonyan notes that the country is experiencing nationwide civil disobedience actions and pre-revolutionary activities, and that the government is pursuing policies contrary to the aspirations of the Georgian people.
What is happening in Georgia is entirely natural for any freedom-loving society that dreams of living freely and engaging with more developed countries. It is unfortunate that the achievements Georgia had made over the years under the adventurous former authorities have been completely undermined. Now, civil society is trying to reclaim them at great cost. First, to regain power, and then to restore the path Georgia wishes to follow.
The political analyst also expects that the ongoing protests may achieve their goals. According to Simonyan, the democratic front in Georgia is fragmented, and the lack of a unified leader makes the protests less effective, but if the movement rallies around Mikheil Saakashvili, it could become more effective.
Political analyst Robert Ghevondyan believes that what is happening in Georgia is, in the classical sense, what Russia had been preparing for years. However, there were no apparent signs until this summer, when “Georgian Dream” decided to adopt so-called Russian laws, and now, the final phase of this “operation” is being attempted: shifting foreign policy toward the Russian agenda and abandoning the pro-Western orientation.
Georgian society disagrees with such developments and is striving to protect its right to determine the fate of its own country. On the other hand, the impact of these events on Armenia will largely depend on the policies Trump adopts during his new presidency. However, from an ideological perspective, the outcome of the events in Georgia could be crucial for Armenia. If Georgia fully shifts to Russian foreign policy and abandons its democratic aspirations, Armenia might find itself in a very difficult situation, especially if it faces pressure to align more closely with Russia’s path.
The political analyst does not rule out the possibility of a coup or an agreement taking place in Georgia.
For example, a deal could be made between Georgian Dream and some opposition leaders. There have already been rumors that one of the opposition leaders has been arrested, which could indicate that certain behind-the-scenes processes are indeed happening.
Can the upcoming presidential elections on December 14 change the situation in Georgia? Ghevondyan does not believe such a resolution is likely.
Most likely, this process will neither reconcile nor escalate the situation further. What will be crucial is whether it will be possible to prolong this process. First, by the government, without escalating the situation and creating dangers for itself, and then by the opposition, without calming down, trying to delay the process until January 20, when Trump’s presidency begins, after which the future developments and directions will become clearer.
The situation remains tense. On December 1, the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that 27 protesters, 16 police officers, and one media worker had been hospitalized due to the use of water cannons and tear gas by the police.
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze warned that “any violation of the law will be punished to the full extent of the law.” He added that the country will continue on its path toward European integration, but has rejected the ‘disgraceful and insulting blackmail’ that has been hindering this process. The country’s EU membership is expected by 2030.