The likelihood of a large-scale military attack by Azerbaijan on Armenia is low: NSS
Armenia’s National Security Service (NSS) has published its annual report on external security risks, addressing military-political, economic, and informational risks, as well as the fight against international terrorism.
The report states that, “based on the analysis of various facts, information, and phenomena, as of the publication of this report, we do not assess the likelihood of a large-scale military attack by Azerbaijan on Armenia as high.”
The report also highlights that the sanctions imposed on some of Armenia’s trading partners, particularly Russia and Iran, pose significant economic challenges. As a result, the utilization of Armenia’s economic potential is limited by the risks of secondary sanctions.
It is noted that if secondary sanctions increase, Armenia’s economy will face new restrictions. The NSS assesses that the likelihood of the sanctions on Russia and Iran being lifted or mitigated by 2025, which could have a significant impact on Armenia’s economy, is low. Therefore, the risks associated with secondary sanctions will remain relevant for Armenia in 2025. Additionally, the continued application of sanctions on Russia, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and other significant factors increase the likelihood of an economic slowdown in Russia, creating additional risks for Armenia’s economy.
In 2025, information-related risks and external interference affecting Armenia are expected to expand, driven largely by the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2026.
According to the analysis, the current year will likely serve as a period of informational “preparation,” aimed, among other objectives, at artificially presenting Armenia’s public discourse with geopolitical “no-alternative” choices and generating agendas that do not align with Armenia’s real interests.