The IMF Predicts a Decline in Armenia’s GDP, While the Government Forecasts Growth
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest report indicates that Armenia’s economic growth will gradually decline in the medium term, reaching an annual rate of 4.5%.
The IMF expects stable economic growth from Armenia, with a 6% increase projected for 2024 and 5% for 2025, accompanied by inflation below the Central Bank’s target (3% +/- 1%).
In 2025, the budget deficit is expected to rise to 5.5% of GDP due to the implementation of capital expenditures and assistance to those displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh. By 2026, the deficit is projected to decrease.
Despite the IMF report, Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan stated in November, during discussions on the draft law on the 2025 state budget, that Armenia’s GDP had grown by 6.5%. A growth rate of 6% is forecast for 2024. That will place Armenia 17th among 190 countries. The government predicts that by the end of the year, economic growth will reach 5.8%.
In 2025, the budget deficit will be increased to fund support programs, but it is expected to decrease again in 2026.